Week 14 Recap
Trevor (62-50-0) : Tyson (66-46-0)
Taking a look at the movement, the first thing that sticks out is the 5-spot move from Spirit
Rising. With how tight things are between 5th to 12th, there could be another huge move this
week. Grade A continues to sit up in 1st spot comfortably with the 1st half in the bag barring an absolute Matt Ryan sized meltdown.
* A secret Santa has come down our chimneys and delivered us their thoughts on this week.
Match #1 – ARMSTRONG vs. RODYCH
Both these teams are sitting less than 10 points out of the top 8 and will look to wrap up the first half sitting in a good position. Team Armstrong set themselves up nicely with a 23-point win last week, taking down Team Howarth. This was one of the first times this season that Karen Armstrong (871) has really had to lean on her team, and the first time she has been the low total on her team as well, a testament to how well she has bowled. Randy Morrissette (1110) was a big supporter, sweeping Craig Enns (783) in a landslide. Randy may have also had the most consistent night of anyone this season, with only 3 pins difference between his low and high game, 276-279. The same consistency was not present for Team Rodych, as three of four players had 90+ pins between their high and low games. Despite the one bad game, Amanda Devenney (826) had a fairly solid night, taking four points off Chris Jeffers (778). Matt Rodych (944) should have joined his teammate in the win column but blew a tire in the last two games to let Dwayne Gelardi (959) edge out total.
The thirds are going to be the real key to this match. Karen versus Jennifer Devenney (903). They both have seen some high scoring weeks recently, over 1075, and that means a few good breaks could turn this into a runaway matchup very quickly for either player.
I could honestly see this as a “play-in” match in Week 30. Although they both sit outside the top8, both teams absolutely belong there talent-wise. Randy is coming off of an 1110, Hooper has been shooting well and the ladies on the team are very solid. I think consistency/experience gives Team Armstrong a pretty good edge in this one.
Tyson’s Pick: Team Armstrong
Trevor’s Pick: Team Armstrong
Santa's Pick: Team Armstrong (19-12)
Match #2 – CAMPBELL vs. S. GELARDI
Team S. Gelardi is holding down the fourth-place position extremely well, with over a 10-point gap on either side of them. They did finally break their three-week losing streak, despite losing grand total by over 90 pins to Team Naugler. The 14-pin win in game four proved to be the difference maker, as they managed five points. Sam Gelardi (1021) extended his hot streak to five weeks with 4+ points, making him the winningest player in the league during that span. Even at third Michael Young (976) showed us a flash of good bowling and just ran into a tough matchup facing Jeston Bartram (1033). Tough matchups were a common theme for Team Campbell last week, slipping down in the standings after a 8.5-22.5 loss to Team Stevenson. No one felt the brunt of it more on their team than Jessica Meurrens (921) who took only managed one point despite a 2-pin difference in total from Jayson May (923). This included two losses by four pins or less, meaning six more pins and it could have been a 4-1 match for her. The only team member to obtain more than one point was the captain Alyssa Campbell (918) who finished strong after a slow start, taking 3.5 points off Erik Stewart (851).
The top half of each lineup is where this game will be won or lost. Holly Chaikowski (821) has a 24-pin advantage on Tabatha Gelardi (759), but Alyssa sit 8 pins up on Corey Chaikowski (744). So, I really do believe this match will come down to which of these pairs can pull ahead in pinfall.
The 3-headed monster of Team Campbell has cooled down a little bit as of late. While they
haven’t been putting up the 3000s I expect, they’re still dangerous. Looking at Team Sam
Gelardi, Michael Young can put up 1000 any week but the wild card is Corey. Coming off of a tough week, can he keep his match close or even tip the total in their favour? Whoever wins in the 2 spot wins the match.
Tyson’s Pick: Team Campbell
Trevor’s Pick: Team Campbell
Santa's Pick: Team S. Gelardi (17-14)
Match #3 – HENDRICKSON vs. COOK
Both these teams dominated last week, combining for 51 points. Team Cook still remains one of two teams mathematically able to catch Team D. Gelardi for first, though the likelihood of making up 21 points is quite slim. Their win last week though did set them up nicely to go into the second half, and the second half of last week is where they ran away, giving up only a single point in the last two games. Surprisingly, even with 26 points, no one swept their matchups. That being said there was some really good bowling at the bottom with Zach Friesen (993) beating Matt Turanski (885) and Trevor Cook (1131) doing Trevor things against Andrew LaMonica (943). Team Hendrickson on the other hand swept the entire top half of the lineup, with Chad Hurd (953) and Cyndie Barnett (859) combing for a perfect night. Brett (950) and Robbie Hendrickson (916) needed to sweat out their finishes a little more, with Brett making a 68-pin comeback in game four to beat Chloe Fleming (921) and Robbie making up 70 pins to take a 3-2 win over Brooke Goulet (868)
These lineups are fairly even, the only real difference has been the consistency at anchor. Trevor Cook has been a top-2 anchor all season and Robbie will need to bring at least 1000 to put his team in a good position.
This is a definite “show me” week for Team Hendrickson. Robbie’s been holding his own at
anchor but faces off against arguably the top guy in the province in Trevor. The difference
between the 1 and 2 spots on both teams is negligible so it comes down to the 3 and 4 hole for Team Hendrickson to make or break this match. Can the Hendo Bros step up?
Tyson’s Pick: Team Cook
Trevor’s Pick: Team Cook
Santa's Pick: Team Cook (16-15)
Match #4 – LOURENCO vs. KING
Team King is coming off the biggest bounce back from a loss any team has seen this season, 24 points. After a 1-point week in Week 13, they put up an incredible 25 points off Team Nelson. The win featured Garry Bell’s (901) first sweep of the season, besting Lisa Fetch (766) with relative ease. The same can go for Wayne King (1011) sweeping Geoff Born (872) with a couple of 10-pin wins in the middle just to keep it interesting. Unfortunately, the only player to not find the win column was Chris Dewar (837) who just missed out on capitalizing on a sub-1000 week from his opponent Cindy Cousins (854). Team Lourenco found themselves in the tightest match of the night, just barely losing to Team Youzwa, 17 pins for grand total. The match featured six games decided by less than nine pins, with only two going in favour of Team Lourenco. Team captain Belle Lourenco (1009) did her part, taking down Colton Youzwa (995), with a 54-pin comeback in game four, now giving her a 251 average over the last three weeks. Jon Linley (848) just barely missed the win column, making a 29-pin comeback in game four just to fall one pin short to Jennifer Duncan (849).
Since Week 5 all of Team King’s wins have only come on weeks where Wayne has shot over 1000, so their key in this match will either be to have him shoot over 1000 again, or have at least two of the others break 900.
Chemistry is one of those factors in this sport that doesn’t get talked about enough. Team King has had a hard time this year getting the full squad out and it has cost them. Lourenco are solid at every spot and one 700 from the opposition equals a W for her team. While 3 and 4 are pretty even, the separation is up top. I think this depends on how the match in the 2 hole goes
Tyson’s Pick: Team Lourenco
Trevor’s Pick: Team Lourenco
Santa's Pick: Team King (17-14)
Match #5 – HOWARTH vs. D. GELARDI
Team D. Gelardi all but has this half wrapped up, with a 21-point lead, they would need a Jakobi Meyers fumble to lose this one. Last week Jesse Leyte (1095) decided to take the reins, sweeping Jennifer Devenney (903), capping it off with a nice 286-282 battle in the last game. The only weak spot this team has seen over the last five weeks is at leadoff, with Chris Jeffers (778) riding a five-week losing streak, with the fifth loss coming to Amanda Devenney (826). These guys will look to wrap things up tonight, only needing 11 points to shutout Team Cook. On the other side Team Howarth will be looking to play spoiler as the 14th ranked team in the standings. Glen Howarth (1023) continues to look sharp, averaging 257 over his last six weeks with no signs of slowing down, most recently steam rolling his sister Karen Armstrong (871) 4-1. Unfortunately for Glen, the rest of his team did not have the same mojo, combining for a 191 average, and 2 points.
The top half for Team Howarth needs to find some way to win, at this point maybe trip their opponents, block a couple shots, something. They have seen just one win since Week 7 and the last week in the half is probably the best time to try something new. A small silver lining for either Mike Devenney (741) or Chris is that someone has to end their losing streak.
Despite the gap in points this year, I think that Team Howarth actually matches up pretty well with Team Gelardi. Glen is one of those guys who will raise it up to where he needs to be so I’m looking for a really good anchor match. If Ray can get on the middle I think that the matchup in the 2 hole makes the difference in a surprising (but not costly) upset.
Tyson’s Pick: Team D. Gelardi
Trevor’s Pick: Team D. Gelardi
Santa's Pick: Team Howarth (16-15)
Match #6 – YOUZWA vs. NELSON
Team Youzwa extended their winning streak to four weeks last Friday, winning a nail biter against Team Lourenco 17-14. Their last three wins have all been 18 points or lower, showing their ability to win the close matches late in the game. Jennifer Duncan (849) can attest to this, hanging onto her match with Jon Linley (848) ton win total by a single pin, giving her the 3-2 edge. Marc Steves (990) had the biggest win of the night facing Alycia Mann (856) giving him 21/25 points in his last five weeks, averaging 252 during that span. Nothing about last week was close for Team Nelson, as they were blown out of the water by Team King. Lisa Fetch (766) saw her four-week winning streak come to a screeching halt getting swept and kicked around by Garry Bell (901). Their spares Matt Sutherland (748) and Geoff Born (871) did not fair much better, combing for just a single point. The lone sliver of light for the team was Cindy Cousins (854) managing to pick up her fourth straight win, beating Chris Dewar (837) 3-2 in a barn burner of a match.
After having his six-week win streak snapped by Belle Lourenco in Week 14, Colton Youzwa will look to start it all up again this week facing Tyson Nelson. With Tyson currently coming off back-to-back sub 900 weeks, he will need to snap out of it if his team is to have any chance in this match.
With the average advantage at every spot, Team Youzwa wants to try and catapult into the top 4off the backs of Team Nelson. Steeves has come back to All-Star play with a solid campaign so far but we all know he has another level. Cindy has to win her match for Team Nelson to have a chance at a W here but I’m having a really hard time imagining a scenario where Team Youzwa doesn’t win this one.
Tyson’s Pick: Team Youzwa
Trevor’s Pick: Team Youzwa
Santa's Pick: Team Youzwa (22-9)
Match #7 – NAUGLER vs. STEVENSON
After a close loss to Team S. Gelardi, Team Naugler now sits just outside the top eight, 7.5 points away from Team Rodych. They were very up and down within their own lineup last week, with both a season low from Jordan Nickerson (711) and a season high from Adam Williamson (1021). Adam’s win over Holly Chaikowski (821) gives him 15 points in the last four weeks, nearly matching his point total from the first 10 weeks, his 218 average over that span is a promising sign of good things to come. Much like the bowling we are seeing from Jeston Bartram (1033) over the same span, averaging 270 with 16 points. Team Stevenson was much more on the same page, taking a big 22.5 points off Team Campbell to catapult themselves into 5th place. This match also saw a season high with the return of Dylan Stevenson (1119), who laid a beat down on Kyle Costello (964) 4-1. The only losing matchup for Team Stevenson was surprisingly Erik Stewart (851) who saw his six-week winning streak snapped by Alyssa Campbell (918). The team is 7-1 over their last eight weeks, making them the hottest team in the second half of the first half.
The leadoffs are gonna feature highly in this matchup. Both Michael Linsenmeier and Adam have had underwhelming starts to their seasons, and both come in with very different mindsets. Michael is coming off a season low in Week 13, and will look to bounce back, while Adam with his season high is just looking to maintain some of that feeling from last Friday.
In my personal favourite storyline of the season so far, Kevin has been really good in his comeback from injury. If he can keep his hits over 75% I think he can make a difference in this matchup. However Jay May has been great this season and there’s no way Linsenmeier stays at 213 all year. I think that Team Stevenson is due for a really good team total at the expense of a really solid group in Team Naugler.
Tyson’s Pick: Team Stevenson
Trevor’s Pick: Team Naugler
Santa's Pick: Team Stevenson (24-7)
Match #8 – LAMONICA vs. FLEMING
These two teams collectively managed 11 points last week, the lowest total of any opposing teams yet this season. We will start with the more bad… Team LaMonica knocked themselves out of the top eight after being punished by Team Cook 26-5. 9/16 games being under 205 is not a winning strategy as they found out. They realistically did not have any extremely low games but the lack of high scores against a top three team never helps. Andrew LaMonica (943) had the highest game on the team by 83 pins, but with 617 for the other three it barely made a dent in his match against Trevor Cook (1131). Team Fleming saw just marginally more success against Team Hendrickson taking six points. Both Chloe Fleming (921) and Brooke Goulet (868) had their matches going into game four and had them slip through their fingers. Even with that, Chloe’s 227 average over the last three weeks is much closer to what she entered the draft with, and is enough to keep her competitive in the third position.
The matchup at thirds should be an interesting one to watch, both Chloe and Matt have had their ups and downs. If Matt shoots over 950 it will likely be his victory, but at the same time if he shoots under 900, I think it is highly likely he will lose, Chloe has been dialed in around that 900-920 range in recent weeks.
Both teams are coming off pretty big losses last week. Looking at the numbers, Team Fleming’s Hit percentages are all way lower than they should be considering the talent they have. If they can find a way to get on the middle more, they have a chance versus a squad that’s reeling a little bit after a Cookie-sized beating. That being said, I think Team LaMonica wants this one really badly and will make a push for the top 10.
Tyson’s Pick: Team LaMonica
Trevor’s Pick: Team LaMonica
Santa's Pick: Team LaMonica (22-9)
***The totally not made up stat of the week = Tyson Nelson spares 74% of his chops. The all time Canadian record is 48.7% for a season. We will all be watching and cheering you on your chop-offs Tyson!
*** This was still written by Secret Santa, not myself